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Halloween spending in 2024 won’t quite reach the heights that it did last year, if the forecast by the National Retail Federation proves to be correct.
But it will come close, and it will still be a lucrative year for retailers who will be selling candy, costumes and ghoulish decorations leading up to Oct. 31.
Total Halloween spending in the United States this year is expected to reach $11.6 billion, down from last year’s record $12.2 billion, the Washington, D.C.-based trade association is predicting.
The federation’s annual forecast is based on research conducted by Prosper Insight & Analytics, a consumer data gathering firm in Worthington, Ohio. The study, released Sept. 19, also found that 47 percent of those surveyed have started their Halloween shopping, up from 37 percent five years ago at this time.
In 2014, that number was 32 percent.
Seventy two percent of those surveyed this year said they plan to participate in Halloween, essentially unchanged from last year. “Participate” includes multiple activities, including distributing candy (67 percent), decorating a home or yard (52 percent), wearing a costume (49 percent), carving a pumpkin (43 percent) and either hosting or attending a party (29 percent).
“Halloween marks the official transition to the fall season for many Americans, and consumers are eager to get a jump start on purchasing new seasonal décor and other autumnal items,” said Katherine Cullen, the federation’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, in a statement.
“Retailers are prepared to meet this early demand by offering shoppers all the holiday essentials to make this year’s celebrations memorable.”
Those consumers who participate in Halloween this year will spend an average of $103.63, or $4.62 less than last year’s $108.24, which was also a record. Candy will generate most revenue of an Halloween ($3.5 billion), followed by decorations and costumes ($3.8 billion each) and greeting cards ($700 million).
Discount stores are again the most popular place to shop for Halloween items, being the favorite of 37 percent of those consumers surveyed followed by specialty Halloween/costume stores (33 percent) and the Internet (33 percent).
About $1.8 billion is expected to be spent on adult costumes this year, the same amount as last year, while spending on children’s costumes will reach approximately $1.3 billion.
For years Halloween was mostly for kids, but that is no longer the case. Adults don’t go trick-or-treating, but they decorate their houses – often lavishly – buy costumes and go to parties.
It’s mostly that age group that is driving the early Halloween shopping, according to the forecast.
“Interest in early Halloween shopping continues to be dominated by the 25-34 age group, with 56 percent of shoppers in this group kicking off their shopping before October,” said Phil Rist, Prosper’s executive vice president of strategy, in a statement. “Their love of the holiday is a key factor in this trend, with nearly half of this segment sharing that they plan to shop early because Halloween is their favorite holiday.”
The early shopping could be a good sign for the economy, which is strong overall but shaky in some areas, particularly inflation, said Robert Kleinhenz, a Long Beach-based economic consultant.
“We could be looking at the soft landing that we’ve been hoping for after the interest rates hikes during the last coupe of years,” Kleinhenz said. “The Federal Reserve did cut interest rates half a point earlier this month to get inflation under control, but it will take awhile for that to work its way through the economy.
“I don’t think it will unleash a storm of spending, but I think it will give the economy the small boost people expect. That could be reflected in the Halloween spending, which is a very strong [forecast] even though it’s a little less than what was spent last year.
“But the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still strong,” Kleinhenz added. “There are some signs of a mild slowdown, but on the overall it’s still growing and it’s still healthy.”
The “pop-up” Halloween stores that open around Labor Day – including Spirit Halloween, Halloween Express, Haunted Halloween Store, Halloween Depot – will account for much of the Halloween spending don this year, according to Kleinhenz.
“The Inland Empire has had a lot of those in the past few years,” Kleinhenz said. “They’re a win for both sides. The property owner gets to fill space for a coupe of months, and the people who want to shop early can shop early.”
But those shops, while still popular, have lost some their luster recently, according to one long-time Inland commercial real estate broker.
“I haven’t done a ‘pop-up’ deal this year,” said Carol Plowman, principal with Lee & Associates Ontario and a retail specialist. “I wouldn’t say they’ve fallen out of favor, but they aren’t as popular as they were even a few years ago. Some malls don’t want them interfering with their other tenants.”
A lease for a specialty store that will only be up for three or four months doesn’t make financial sense.
“The store usually wants 15,000 to 25,000 square feet, Plowman said. “They get shoppers, but they only pay $25,000 or $30,000 a month in rent, which isn’t very much. And sometimes there are too many regulations to deal with, with the property owner and the city.”
The future of Halloween shops might be in smaller spaces in malls, according to Plowman.
“They aren’t going away, but I think they work better in malls because that’s where you get the good foot traffic,” Plowman said. “And I think they would work better at 10,000 square feet. That would make more sense for the property owner.”
