Iowa Caucus Reflections

By Ed Hoffman

With the results of the Iowa Caucus in, it’s time to analyze what just happened. In the Democratic party, the results were precisely 50/50 with Clinton and Sanders in a dead heat and a literal coin toss held to determine a winner. The fact that Hillary Clinton, the supposedly inevitable nominee, had to win a coin toss to be declared the winner of the first primary is just embarrassing for her and her supporters. No matter how they try to spin it, that is no victory. And in New Hampshire next week? Let’s just say that Vermont’s own Bernie Sanders is bound to win over his fellow New Englanders in the Granite State.

On the Republican side, the results were surprising in a different way. The momentum that Donald Trump has carried throughout this entire campaign has been remarkable, to the point that it seemed like he could do no wrong in the eyes of his supporters. And yet, it seems that not showing up to last week’s debate was the one thing Iowa voters just couldn’t forgive. So in the end, Canadian-born Ted Cruz was declared the winner by 3.4 percentage points. That was Republican surprise #1.

The second surprise was the astonishingly tiny margin between second and third place. In the end, Trump only beat out Rubio by only one percentage point. One! The second surprise was the astonishingly tiny margin between second and third place. In the end, Trump only beat out Rubio by only one percentage point. One! The only other candidate to achieve double digit percentages was Dr. Ben Carson with an admirable 10% of the vote – but with Rubio claiming 23%, the margin might – sadly – be too wide for Carson to make a comeback. And so Rubio, ever the polished speaker who defaults to his stump speech whenever he doesn’t know what else to say, is now officially in the top three. As he made his speech Monday night, most of us had never seen someone so excited to come in third place before.

But remember, leaning on his stump speech is not Rubio’s only liability. The biggie – the one that really hurts him – is his past involvement in the Gang of Eight, the eight senators who banded together to put together a comprehensive immigration reform bill that included a path to citizenship for illegals (also known as “blanket amnesty,” depending on who you ask). This is why Cruz and Trump will now attack Rubio by calling him the “establishment candidate,” a dreaded label for any candidate who wants to win over Tea Party voters.

Ted Cruz was already milking this before the caucus, reminding viewers of every program he showed up at that “a vote for Marco Rubio is a vote for amnesty.” That’s smart – and yet, he still has to win over people like me who aren’t even sure he’s eligible to run for President (and, who wish that Carly Fiorina would be given more air time. On that note: The Washington Times reports that among the three major broadcast networks, Trump was given 157 minutes of airtime in January, Cruz was given 79 minutes, Rubio 10 minutes – while Fiorina was given a dismal 29 seconds. Don’t tell me this game isn’t rigged by the media).

So as the candidates go to New Hampshire this week and political junkies start counting down to Super Tuesday on March 15, all three frontrunners – Cruz, Trump and Rubio – have some hurdles they need to clear. Whoever knocks down the most obstacles is the one who will likely take the nomination – because remember, the winner of the Iowa Caucus is rarely the party’s nominee. That goes for both parties.

Ed Hoffman is host of The Main Event on AM590, which airs Saturday 9:30 AM- 10:30 AM and Sunday 4:00 PM- 5:00 PM. Follow him on Twitter @EdHoffman, and like him on Facebook by searching The Main Event 590.