IE Business Daily Business news for the Inland Empire.
A great deal is being made of 31st District Congressman Gary Miller’s surprise decision to retire from the United States House of Representatives.
The most important aspect, regionally, is the loss of an elected representative with seven terms and seniority in a body that requires it to get priority for San Bernardino County’s needs. Miller is a senior member of the House Transportation Committee, an obvious fit for any Inland Empire elected official. His current position provides our area with great sway on future transportation projects.
Many of us can remember fondly when Congressmen George Brown and Jerry Lewis could work across the partisan divide and deliver for our area. Love them or hate them, they were statesmen and since Congressman Brown’s passing, we have never had that tandem of bipartisan ability available to the Inland Empire.
Regardless of who is elected to represent us, none will be able to replace Miller’s experience and position for a decade. Worse yet, electing a Democrat from the minority party would make the region even less viable as a future target for Federal funding. Democrats have no chance of regaining the House in this election cycle, and couldn’t come close even with the Obama landslide of 2012. So let us not dwell on fantasy.
While some local and national talking heads have been playing up Democrat chances in the 31st, it is clear that any Democrat that survived the June election would have had a difficult time unseating an incumbent. With the ongoing drag of Obamacare and President Obama foundering in national polls, Democrats have a tough election cycle in 2014. Immigration? Minimum Wage? Not real issues that will be driving turnout in June or November.
Which brings us to the national issue: Does the 31st really matter in 2014? In the big picture, that answer is no. The 31st District, even if taken by one of the four Democrats running, will not swing the House of Representatives to the Democrat Party. While Democrats are throwing millions of dollars into the region, expect Republicans to cut bait.
Miller’s surprise last-minute decision has left an empty field for Republican candidates, with no time to catch up with the fundraising or grass roots development of Democrat candidates. Every Democrat has at least a six month head start. Republicans would be wise, from a global perspective, to spend valuable resources on defeating vulnerable Democrats in red districts who are tainted by the radioactivity of Obamacare, higher taxes, and the current economic malaise caused by Democrat economic policies.
Simply put, the resources required to salvage the 31st District for Republicans is three times the amount necessary to defeat a handful of Democrats in other parts of the Country. That’s the math.
In the end, we will all be missing Gary Miller.
