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National Retail Federation predicts solid sales growth

National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales to rise

The National Retail Federation is predicting holiday retail sales will rise six to eight percent this year compared with 2021, with total sales expected to land between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.

Despite persistent inflation, sales should top 4.9 percent in November and December, the average year-over-year increase in Christmas shopping during the last 10 years, according to the Washington D.C.-based trade association.

Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 percent and 12 percent, or between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.

That would be up from nearly $239 billion last year, when consumers turned to online shopping during the pandemic.

“This holiday season cycle is anything but typical,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the federation’s chief economist, in a statement. “The overall outlook is generally positive. Despite record inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”

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