The National Retail Federation is predicting holiday retail sales will rise six to eight percent this year compared with 2021, with total sales expected to land between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
Despite persistent inflation, sales should top 4.9 percent in November and December, the average year-over-year increase in Christmas shopping during the last 10 years, according to the Washington D.C.-based trade association.
Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 10 percent and 12 percent, or between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion.
That would be up from nearly $239 billion last year, when consumers turned to online shopping during the pandemic.
“This holiday season cycle is anything but typical,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the federation’s chief economist, in a statement. “The overall outlook is generally positive. Despite record inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat.”