The National Retail Federation is predicting retail sales will grow six to eight percent this year, to more than $4.8 trillion.
“Consumers are ready to spend and have the resources to do so,” said Federation President and Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay in a statement. “We should see durable growth this year given consumer confidence to continue this expansion, notwithstanding risks related to inflation, COVID-19 and geopolitical threats.”
Retail sales are expected to end up between $4.86 trillion and $4.95 trillion. Those numbers don’t include revenue generated by automobile dealerships, gasoline stations and restaurants. Non-store and online sales this year are included in the year-over-year numbers. They’re expected to grow between 11 percent and 13 percent to $1.17 trillion to $1.19 trillion, as consumers continue to use e-commerce.
Last year, sales grew 14 percent compared with 2020, the highest year-over-year growth rate in 20 years, according to the Federation.