IE Business Daily Business news for the Inland Empire.
U.S. retail sales will total $5.6 trillion this year, a 4.4 percent increase compared with 2025, according to the National Retail Federation.
That prediction is based on a forecasting method recently developed by the federation and Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm, according to a statement posted March 18 on the federation’s website.
That forecast compares with average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent during the last 10 years, not counting the pandemic years of 2000-2002.
“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025, even as broader economic conditions fluctuated,” said Matthew Shay, the federation’s president and chief executive officer, in the statement. “We expect that consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending once again serving as a pillar of economic support.”
That forecast takes into account the war with Iran, which began Feb. 28.
“While the geopolitical environment and ongoing trade policy challenges warrant close attention, we remain optimistic that the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. economy will support continued stability in the year ahead, said Mark Matthews, the federation’s executive director of research, in the statement.
