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Holiday retail outlook is good, but not great

Retail sales spiked at end 2025

Retail sales nationwide surged during the last two months of 2025, as consumers continued to make holiday spending a priority despite some choppy economic waters.

Sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 grew 4.1 percent compared with the last two months of 2024, to a little more than $1 trillion, according to the National Retail Federation.

In December, total U.S. retail sales were up 1.2 percent month-over-month, seasonally adjusted, and up 3.5 percent, unadjusted.

That compared with increases of 0.12 percent month-over-month and 4.5 percent year-over year in November.

“December saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” said Matthew Shay, the federation’s president and chief executive officer, in the statement,

Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants along with auto dealers and service stations, were up 1.6 percent month-over-month in December and up 3.58 year-over-year. That compared with a 0.4 percent decrease month-over-month and a 4.6 percent increase year-over-year in November, the federation reported.

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