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Commercial real estate development expected to rise: report

Fifty one percent of California’s real estate executives say they expect to see more commercial development statewide during the next three years, according to a report.

That’s a 17 percent increase compared with last summer, according to the Winter 2026 Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast, released Feb. 19.

Twenty nine percent of the executives surveyed said they expect the rate of commercial development to remain stable between now and 2029.

Much of the report’s optimism can be attributed to expected interest rate cuts.

“After a long period of higher-for-longer interest rates and challenging financing conditions, we’re now entering the next phase of the investment cycle,” said Spencer Kallick, partner at Allen Matkins, in a statement. “Developers and investors are coming off the sidelines, and are adjusting to the new normal.”

Concerns about market distress also appear to be going away.

Sixty eight percent of those surveyed say distress levels are either remaining consistent or have peaked and are beginning to decline, up from 58 percent in the summer survey, according the report.

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