Retail Federation predicts big Xmas spending

The National Retail Federation is predicting that holiday retail spending will reach $1.01 to $1.02 trillion this year.

If that forecast is correct, it will be a year-over-year increase of 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent in November and December, according to the Washington, D.C.-based trade association.

Last year’s holiday sales total $976.1 billion, a 4.3 percent increase compared with 2003.

“American consumers may be cautious, yet (they) remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” said Matthew Shay, the federation’s president and chief executive officer, said the statement. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season, and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories.”