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Holiday retail outlook is good, but not great

Retail spending up in August

U.S. retail spending grew in August, boosted by back-to-school spending and attempts by consumers to make their purchases before tariffs take effect, according to the National Retail Federation.

Total retail sales, not counting automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.5 percent month-over-month in August and up 6.8 percent year-over-year, the Washington, D.C.-based trade association reported.

The month-over-month number was seasonally adjusted, the year-over-year number was not.

Retail spending was also helped by lower fuel costs, and tax-free holidays, said Matthew Shay, the federation’s president and chief executive office.

“We may be seeing inflationary impacts from tariffs since recent data shows price increases in commodity goods,” Shay said in a statement. “Even with weaker job growth than many expected, employment remains stable and at a high level, giving consumers the ability to spend thoughtfully on household priorities.”

Core retail sales – not counting automobile and gasoline sales and restaurants – rose 0.26 percent month-over-month in August and up 6.6 percent year-over-year.

Total sales were up five percent year over year during the first eight months of 2025, while core sales rose 5.2 percent, according to the federation.

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