U.S. shoppers appear ready to spend on Halloween

Despite apprehension about the economy, spending on the holiday devoted to ghosts, goblins and trick-or-treating and is expected to reach $13.1 billion this year, according to the National Retail Federation.

That would top last year’s $11.6 billion, and the record $12.2 billion spent two years ago, if the federation’s annual forecast ends up being correct.

Those numbers are impressive considering some of the negative signals the national economy has been experiencing recently, starting with a slowing labor market. The economy added only 22,000 jobs August, well below expectations.

Also, consumer spending has slowed, a sign of a possible slowdown on the horizon.

Inflation caused in part by tariffs are causing some of those trends, particularly the drop in spending, but that apparently won’t affect people’s willingness to spend on Halloween.

Seventy nine percent of those surveyed said they expect prices to be higher this year than they were last year, mostly because of tariffs. Even so, 73 percent plan to celebrate Halloween this year, essentially the same number as in 2024.

Sixty six percent said they expect to hand out candy this year, 51 percent said they plan to wear a costume and a little more than half said they will decorate their home or yard.

“Even with concerns about price increases due to tariffs, Halloween continues to resonate with consumers of all ages,” said Katherine Cullen, the federation’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, in a statement. “Whether it’s dressing in costume or carving a pumpkin, more consumers plan to take part in Halloween activities and traditions.

“Retailers are prepared to ensure the shopping experience is a treat for consumers this Halloween season.”

Survey data was gathered by Prosper Insights and Analytics, a firm in Worthington, Ohio that specializes in gathering and breaking down consumer data.

Forty two percent of the consumers surveyed said they will do their Halloween shopping at a discount store this year, making it the most popular destination. One year ago, that number was 37 percent.

Thirty one percent say they prefer to shop at one of the specialty stores that appear in empty shopping center spaces and parking lots this time every year, like Spirit of Halloween, Halloween Express or Halloween Depot. Thirty one percent say they plan to do most or all of their Halloween shopping online this year.

Average spending per person is expected to reach $114.45 in 2025, which will top last year by $11 if that forecast is correct. It would also break the previous record of $108.24 that was set in 2023.

Just as they did one year ago, consumers are planning to do much of their Halloween shopping early this year. Forty nine percent said they started in September or earlier, a slight increase from 2024.

Why the early start? Forty four percent say they’re looking forward to the fall, 37 percent say it’s because Halloween is one of their favorite holidays, 33 percent say there are items they want to buy and don’t want to miss out, and 33 percent want to avoid the pressure of last-minute shopping.

Those responses are a sign that people are being a little more cautious than usual about how much they spend at Halloween this year.

“For consumers looking to balance their budgets, strategies such as buying early to spread out purchases or shopping at discount stores are just some ways they are being mindful of costs,” said Phil Rist, Prosper’s vice president of strategy, in a statement. “Despite these budget considerations, consumers are committed to prioritizing Halloween.”

A lot of the consumers who are making Halloween a priority this year are adults. About $2 billion will be spent on adult-themed costumes this year, according to the survey.

Five point six million consumers plan on dressing up as a witch, 2.7 million as a vampire. Pirate, cat and Batman costumes are expected to attract about 1.6 million users each, according to the federation.

Adult-theme costumes are a staple at the “pop-up” retailers like Spirit of Halloween or Halloween Express, but those stores are becoming harder to find, according to one long-time retail broker in the Inland Empire.

“It’s hard to find locations for them, and you can’t find landlords who want them,” said Carol Plowman, senior vice president with Lee & Associate Ontario. “They get $30,000 for a 60 or 90-day lease, which makes no sense. The only benefit for the landlord is that, in some cases, it reimburses them for expenses.

“But most of the time the landlords aren’t interested. They are tough deals to make.”

The federation’s survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percent, is based on surveys of 8,045 consumers conducted between Sept. 2-9. Its $13.2 billion forecast is substantial, and perhaps a sign that that consumers have more confidence in the economy that some reports have indicated, according to one local economist.

“I think people are cautiously optimistic that the economy is going to be okay,” said Jay Prag, professor of economics at Claremont Graduate University.  “The economic statistics are weaker than they were, but they’re not necessarily weak.”

Two economic indicators support that analysis, according Prag.

“Unemployment is still low, by historical standards, and the stock market is hitting record highs,” Prag said. “I like the stock market because it’s usually a good indicator of where the economy is heading. “I think people feel like there will be some bumps in the road, but in the long run we’ll be all right.”