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Holiday retail outlook is good, but not great

Valentine’s Day expected to be big payday for retailers

Valentine’s Day is expected to generate record sales in 2026.

An estimated $29.1 billon will be spent by on gifts, flowers and other items leading up to Feb. 14, above last year’s record of $27.5 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Shoppers are planning to spend an average of $199.78, also a record. That would be an increase from $188.8 in 2025, and it will top the previous spending-per-person record of $196.31 set in 2020.

Data was compiled by Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“Valentine’s Day is a cherished holiday that resonates with many Americans,” said Katherine Cullen, the federation’s vice president of industry and consumer insights, in the statement. “Much of that growth is driven by middle- and high-income shoppers who are expanding their gift lists.”

More than half of those surveyed said they will celebrate Valentine’s Day this year, with 83 percent of those saying they expect to purchase a gift for a significant other, the federation report.

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