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California, and the Inland Empire, both need more post secondary education.
That’s the conclusion of The Golden Ticket: How Raising Postsecondary Attainment Rates to 70 Percent for All Demographic Groups Would Unlock Decades of Prosperity in California, a report by Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce.
Released last month, the study concludes that the region would add more than $1 trillion to its economy if 70 percent of its working-age adults “earned a degree, certificate, or other valuable credentials.”
Currently, only 25 percent of the workforce adults in Riverside and San Bernardino counties have a four-year degree, according to Cal Matters, a nonpartisan, nonprofit news organization in Sacramento.
Should 70 percent of California’s adults earn a degree – that number is now about 40 percent – the state could increase its economic output by as much as $4.4 trillion during the next 50 years, the study found.
That would be about $212,000 for every working-age adult in all demographics.
Of that $4.4 trillion the Golden Ticket report recommends investing nearly $200 billion in postsecondary education. After five years the state would see average yearly gains of $65.5 billion through higher earnings, increased tax revenues, economic expansion and reduced public spending.
By 2030, nearly 75 percent of all jobs in California are expected to require education or training beyond high school. That makes workforce readiness “a pressing economic priority,” the report states.
At least getting close to the 70 percent goals is essential if California is to remain the world’s fourth-largest economy.
“California’s future competitiveness depends on whether we connect more people to credentials that lead to real opportunity,” said Eloy Ortiz Oakley, president and chief executive officer of the College Futures Foundation in Oakland. “We cannot build tomorrow’s economy with yesterday’s model.
“The challenge its to create systems that reflect the learners of today and tomorrow, not the learners of 50 years ago.”
The College Futures Foundation is a nonprofit grant foundation that promotes all forms of post-high school education and training programs, with the goal of creating greater economic mobility and prosperity. It helped Georgetown University compile the 94-page report, which did not arrive at its 70 percent threshold by chance.
Gavin Newsom has declared that, by 2030, at least 70 percent of California’s adult population should have some education or job skill training after high school. That number was based on the expected demand for college-educated workers throughout California by that time.
Currently, about 55 percent of working-age Californians – 25 to 64 years old – have a four-year degreed or a post-high school credential. However, there are major gaps in attainment rates based on race and ethnicity, financial status, age, and what part of the state a person is from, according to the report.
Reaching the 70 percent goal will take a “historic public investment,” but the report does not mention exactly how much it will cost to reach that goal. But even coming close would be a substantial boost to the state’s economy, which today is worth about $4.3 trillion, according to California Public Policy Institute.
No one disputes that individuals with a college degree or some some post-secondary training usually earn more, but putting that many college graduates to the job market might not grow the state’s economy as much as the Georgetown/College Futures study claims that it would, according to one local economist.
Adding that many people to the ranks of the college educated would probably push down wages and salaries, because there aren’t that many jobs for people with college degrees, or even associate’s degrees, said Jay Prag, professor of economics at the Drucker School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
If the workforce were enlarged that much, a basic law of supply and demand would kick in: employers would have a larger talent pool to draw from, leaving workers with less leverage. That would allow companies to reduce wages, and some compensation offers for some positions, because those positions would not be as difficult to fill as they might normally be.
“They’re also talking about people making the leap from an entry-level job to a higher-skilled job, and not everyone can do that,” Prag said. “You’re also talking about millions of people suddenly getting those higher education credentials. That would be difficult to do.”
The report itself expresses some skepticism about its findings, calling the 70 percent goal “aspirational.” It also predicts that six of the 12 demographic groups analyzed in the study won’t meet the 70 percent goal by 2035, five years after the state’s target year.
The report also calls on the state legislature to do its share, saying it must make postsecondary education more accessible to underserved residents, encourage people to finish their degrees and credentials, and make the entire process easier for all age groups.
It’s probably not realistic to expect the Inland Empire to reach the 70 percent goal anytime soon, according to Prag.
“If the question is whether that can be done, the short answer is no,” Prag said. “You’re talking about a lot of people getting their bachelor’s degree online, and not necessarily from a place that provides a quality education. There are no studies that show how much a degree from one of those places adds to your lifetime income. It probably helps, but it’s not the same as going to UC Riverside.”
